India has been continually attracting massive foreign investments since the opening up of its economy with a series of liberalization policies in the early 1990s. This inward FDI plays an important role in the Indian economy as a financier of her BOP. However in recent years, India has been fast...

As I am writing this book, Russia is invading Ukraine, and the world’s beliefs in global institutions, peace, humanism, and social progress have been shaken again. Understanding why conflict is endemic to any social relation, under which conditions it is a positive element in social life, and...

As I am writing this book, Russia is invading Ukraine, and the world’s beliefs in global institutions, peace, humanism, and social progress have been shaken again. Understanding why conflict is endemic to any social relation, under which conditions it is a positive element in social life, and...

This paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of policies aimed at setting a more depreciated level of the real exchange rate. An intertemporal optimizing model suggests that, in the absence of changes in fiscal policy, a more depreciated level of the real exchange can only be...

While high interest rates and foreign exchange sales are the most common way of dealing with a speculative attack in the foreign exchange market, several countries resorted to capital controls during recent periods of currency market turbulence. The purpose of this study is to use daily...

This note reviews the theories as to why financial crises spill over across national boundaries. We discuss alternative frameworks ranging from bilateral trade links to more complex financial interconnections via banks and other investors. We review the evidence on which channels of contagion...

The preceding sections have predominantly focused on the antecedents of financial crises. Namely, the emphasis has been on the ability of a variety of indicators, including the credit ratings, to anticipate crises and characterize the extent to which a country is vulnerable. An application of...

In this chapter we provide a brief review of the “signals” approach used in this book to assess the probability of a currency or a banking crisis. This methodology was first used to analyze the performance of a variety of macroeconomic and financial indicators around the “twin crises” in...

The signals approach was applied to 24 of the indicators around the dates of the 29 banking and the 87 currency crises. In what follows, we first compare our results for the 15 original indicators in Kaminsky and Reinhart (1996) to those presented in that study. This exercise assesses the...

In this study, we begin by assessing the ability of sovereign credit ratings to anticipate crises. In addition, given the wave of sovereign credit ratings downgrades that have followed the crises in Asia, we investigate formally the extent to which credit ratings are reactive. Along the way, we...