Hochdimensionale Regressionsprobleme, die sich dynamisch entwickeln, sind in zahlreichen Bereichen der Wissenschaft anzutreffen. Die Dynamik eines solchen komplexen Systems wird typischerweise mittels der Zeitreiheneigenschaften einer geringen Anzahl von Faktoren analysiert. Diese Faktoren...

Discovering the preferences and the behaviour of consumers is a key challenge in mar- keting. Information about such topics can be gathered through surveys in which the respondents must assign a score to a number of items. In this article we suggest a strat- egy to analyze such data and achieve...

We model the dynamic volatility and correlation structure of electricity futures of the European Energy Exchange index. We use a new multiplicative dynamic conditional correlation (mDCC) model to separate long-run from short-run components. We allow for smooth changes in the unconditional...

A new heteroskedastic hedonic regression model is suggested which takes into account time-varying volatility and is applied to a blue chips art market. A nonparametric local likelihood estimator is proposed, and this is more precise than the often used dummy variables method. The empirical...

This paper analyses the time-varying conditional correlations between Chinese A and B share returns using the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model of Engle [Engle, R.F. (2002), "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional...

This paper develops a generalized autoregressive conditional correlation (GARCC) model when the standardized residuals follow a random coefficient vector autoregressive process. As a multivariate generalization of the Tsay (1987, Journal of the American Statistical Association 82, 590-604)...

The purpose in registering patents is to protect the intellectual property of the rightful owners. Deterministic and stochastic trends in registered patents can be used to describe a country's technological capabilities and act as a proxy for innovation. This paper presents an econometric...

In this paper we advance the idea that optimal risk management under the Basel II Accord will typically require the use of a combination of different models of risk. This idea is illustrated by analyzing the best empirical models of risk for five stock indexes before, during, and after the...

Just as friendly arguments based on an ignorance of facts eventually led to the creation of the definitive Guinness Book of World Records, any argument about university rankings has seemingly been a problem without a solution. To state the obvious, alternative rankings methodologies can and do...

Many macroeconomic forecasts and forecast updates like those from IMF and OECD typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast...