We deal with smoothed estimators for conditional probability functions of discrete-valued time series (Y-1) under two different settings. When the conditional distribution of Y-1 given its lagged values falls in a parametric family and depends on exogenous random variables, a smoothed maximum...

This paper provides an insight to the time-varying dynamics of the shape of the distribution of financial return series by proposing an exponential weighted moving average model that jointly estimates volatility, skewness and kurtosis over time using a modified form of the Gram-Charlier density...

In many real world applications, decisions are usually made by collecting and judging information from multiple different data sources. Let us take the stock market as an example. We never make our decision based on just one single piece of advice, but always rely on a collection of information,...

We critically examine how evidence and knowledge are brokered between the various actors (agents) in regulatory decisions on risk. Following a précis of context and regulatory process, we explore the role power and personality might play as evidence is synthesised and used to inform risk...