Showing 1 - 10 of 3,835
This paper investigates the economic importance of nonparametrically/semiparametrically modelling the shape and the change in the unknown distribution of returns in portfolio allocation problems from a Bayesian perspective. Besides parametric multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) benchmark models for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015214743
This paper introduces a new factor structure suitable for modeling large realized covariance matrices with full likelihood based estimation. Parametric and nonparametric versions are introduced. Due to the computational advantages of our approach we can model the factor nonparametrically as a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015257776
In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015265738
potential skewness, kurtosis, and volatility roughness with the Bayesian nonparametric component. The results show that this … provides positive economic gains for a CRRA investor at different risk-aversion levels when transaction costs are assumed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015267736
This paper investigates the economic importance of nonparametrically/semiparametrically modelling the shape and the change in the unknown distribution of returns in portfolio allocation problems from a Bayesian perspective. Besides parametric multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) benchmark models for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015270648
This paper introduces several new Bayesian nonparametric models suitable for capturing the unknown conditional distribution of realized covariance (RCOV) matrices. Existing dynamic Wishart models are extended to countably infinite mixture models of Wishart and inverse-Wishart distributions. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015245110
The relationship between risk and return is one of the most studied topics in finance. The majority of the literature … is based on a linear, parametric relationship between expected returns and conditional volatility. However, there is no … weights and arguments. We find strong robust evidence of volatility feedback in monthly data. Once volatility feedback is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015240036
This paper proposes a new approach to estimate general stationary diffusion processes that describe the evolution of unobserved arrival rates of credit events on sovereign bonds, allowing for arbitrary parametric drift and diffusion specifications. The solutions and transition processes for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015260419
Markov model with the volatility persistence captured by the GARCH framework, to effectively model and forecast short … in volatility, thereby enhancing the accuracy of density forecasts compared to existing benchmark models. Out …-of-sample evaluations demonstrate the superior performance of our model in density forecasts and in capturing volatility dynamics due to its …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015214745
We are interested in forecasting bankruptcies in a probabilistic way. Specifcally, we com- pare the classification performance of several statistical and machine-learning techniques, namely discriminant analysis (Altman's Z-score), logistic regression, least-squares support vector machines and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015219756