In this paper we show that survey-based-expectations about the future evolution of the Chilean exchange rate have the ability to predict the returns of the six primary non-ferrous metals: aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. Predictability is also found for returns of the London Metal...

The business cycles of advanced economies are synchronized. Standard macro models fail to explain that fact. This paper presents a simple model of a two-country, two-traded-good, complete-financial-markets world in which country-specific productivity shocks generate business cycles that are...

This paper investigated some macroeconomic and financial stylised facts in the context of the developing economies of the Guinea and the five Anglophone West Africa countries, consisting of The Gambia, Ghana, Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone. These six countries were collectively known as the...

Against the backdrop of the move to an inflation targeting monetary policy framework beginning 2014 with consumer price index (CPI) inflation as the nominal anchor, this paper revisits monetary transmission dynamics. Rather than confining to the typical three equation New Keynesian model, this...

Most notable claims linking events on Earth with solar cycle phases relate to solar maximums. Cyclical maximums of solar activity could be associated with economic recessions (W.S.Jevons) or revolutions (A.L.Chizhevsky). However, both the diminishing magnitude of solar cycles and the recent...

The currently unfolding solar cycle 25 reached its maximum on or about October 2024. According to long-standing theoretical claims, cyclical maximums of solar activity could be associated with economic recessions (W.S.Jevons), revolutions and migration (A.L.Chizhevsky). And indeed, several of...

Through an estimated and calibrated DSGE model with imperfect competition and nominal rigidities, this work aims to assess the dynamic effects of exogenous perturbations in a small open economy to provide a prescription of a simple monetary policy rule associated with the minimal welfare losses...

We suggest use continuous numerical risk grades [0,1] of R for a single risk or the unit cube in Rn for n risks as the economic domain. We consider risk ratings of economic agents as their coordinates in the economic domain. Economic activity of agents, economic or other factors change agents...

This paper revisits the empirical relationship between volatility and long-run growth, but the key contribution lies in decomposing growth volatility into its business-cycle and trend components. This volatility decomposition also accounts for enormous heterogeneity among countries in terms of...

This paper analyzes the effects of the high economic openness of West African economies coupled with liability dollarization, on their economic activities. By using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in a small open economy framework, and performing an experiment based on a case of...