Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson phenomenon describes the relationship between productivity and price inflation within different sectors of a particular economy, where the sectoral productivity differential stands as one of the possible drivers of the (structural) price inflation. The...

We construct a zero-net-worth uninformed ”naive investor” who uses a random portfolio allocation strategy. We then compare the returns of the momentum strategist to the return distribution of naive investors. For this purpose we reward momentum profits relative to the return percentiles of...

Considera la estimacion de variables en ecuaciones lineales de Euler, donde los regresores puedan ser no estacionarios, y propone un procedimiento multietapico que usa informacion obtenida del pretest del orden de integracion de datos de series, para mejorar el procedimiento de especificacion y...

En este trabajo se desarrollan los argumentos de Kremer sobre el test propuesto por Hansen basado sobre los residuos de la segunda etapa de las relaciones de cointegracion estimadas a traves de Cochrane-Orcutt. Se argumenta que a pesar de las ventajas de este test, sufre del problema de la...

There is a wide literature on the dynamic adjustment of employment and its relationship with the business cycle. In this paper we present a statistical model that offers a congruent representation of part of the UK labour market since the mid 1960s. We use a cointegrated vector autoregressive...

There is a wide literature on the dynamic adjustment of employment and its relationship with the business cycle. Our aim is to propose a statistical model that offers a congruent representation of post-war UK labour market. We use a cointegrated vector autoregressive Markov-switching model where...

It is investigated whether euro area variables can be forecast better based on synthetic time series for the pre-euro period or by using just data from Germany for the pre-euro period. Our forecast comparison is based on quarterly data for the period 1970Q1-2003Q4 for 10 macroeconomic variables....

In this paper we re-consider the theoretical basis for the Lucas Critique from the point of view of Robust Decision Theory. We first emphasise that the Lucas Critique rests on a weak theoretical paradigm in that it fails to consider the motivation for the policy change by the government and...