This paper studies empirically how uncertainty affects speculation in the foreign exchange markets. We use the dispersion of survey forecasts of key macroeconomic variables to measure uncertainty about fundamentals. We find that uncertainty has a non-monotone effect on exchange rate pressures:...

Este documento examina el mecanismo de transmission de la politica monetaria en un grupo de paises europeos mediante modelos dinamicos heterogeneos estimados de forma bayesiana. Utilizando evidencia relativa a Alemania, Francia, Italia y España anterior al establecimiento de la UME, se muestra...