probability, with confidence interval, of the time that a prescribed degradation level is exceeded is shown to be practical, as … demonstrated in the analysis of irradiated fuel cladding. The methodology for the estimation of the probability is predicated on …

) that achieves the lowest total project cost for a given probability of success while meeting technical performance and … not just individual risks. The efficient RRA set is determined based on ''Outcome Cost Vs Probability of Success''. The … risks and RRAs are characterized using scenarios, decision trees, and cumulative probability distributions. The analysis …

certain probability distribution function (PDF). Upon many realizations of the model, one can get reliable information about …

map plots the relative preference of alternative risk-mitigation options versus the annual probability of an undesired …

(in the absence of threatened violation detection). Blue's uncertainty is modeled as a probability distribution over three …

Recent psychological research has investigated how people assess the probability of an indicative conditional. Most … people give the conditional probability of q given p as the probability of if p then q. Asking about the probability of an …

A procedure is proposed for examining different aspects of performance for judgemental directional probability … the existing accuracy measures, enabling detailed comparisons of probability forecasts with ex-post empirical … directional probability exchange rate forecasts for the US Dollar/Swiss Franc from 23/7/96 to 7/12/99 and the findings are …

models over three time horizons on a task involving probabilistic forecasts of exchange rate movements. Probability …

then uses an event tree to develop a set of compromise paths. Probability models are developed for each of the compromise … paths that user parameters based on expert judgment or historical data on security violations. The resulting probability …. Application of the methodology is demonstrated using a national security example. A set of compromise paths and probability models …