Typical data sets employed by economists and financial analysts do not exceed a few hundred or thousand observations per series. However, in the last decade data sets containing tick-by-tick observations have become available. The studies of these data have turned up new and interesting facts...

In this paper we assess the short-term forecasting power of different time series models in the electricity spot market. In particular we calibrate AR/ARX ("X" stands for exogenous/fundamental variable—system load in our study), AR/ARX-GARCH, TAR/TARX and Markov regime-switching models to...

In this paper we assess the short-term forecasting power of different time series models in the Nord Pool electricity spot market. We evaluate the accuracy of both point and interval predictions; the latter are specifically important for risk management purposes where one is more interested in...

Dramatic changes to the structure of the power sector have taken place over the past few decades. The major structural change being the introduction of competitive markets and power exchanges. In this paper, we conduct a detailed empirical study of the statistical properties of the Nordic power...

We calibrate Markov regime-switching (MRS) models to mean daily spot prices from the EEX market. Our empirical study shows that (i) models with shifted spike regime distributions lead to more realistic models of electricity spot prices and that (ii) introducing heteroskedasticity in the base...

"Power security" is a term inevitably related to "risk" and "risk management". Sound risk management practices will not only lead to more financially stable performance of the power sector, but also to a more secure power system. In this article we comment on integrated risk management and its...

One of the most profound features of electricity spot prices are the price spikes. Markov regime-switching (MRS) models seem to be a natural candidate for modeling this spiky behavior. However, in the studies published so far, the goodness-of-fit of the proposed models has not been a major...

One of the most profound features of electricity spot prices are the price spikes. Markov regime-switching (MRS) models seem to be a natural candidate for modeling this spiky behavior. However, in the studies published so far, the goodness-of-fit of the proposed models has not been a major...

In the paper Weron (1996, Statist. Probab. Lett. 28, 165-171), I gave a proof to the equality in law of a skewed stable variable and a nonlinear transformation of two independent uniform and exponential variables. The Chambers et al. (1976, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 71, 340–344) method of...

In this paper we assess the short-term forecasting power of different time series models in the electricity spot market. We calibrate autoregression (AR) models, including specifications with a fundamental (exogenous) variable - system load, to California Power Exchange (CalPX) system spot...