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This draft is a summary of the paper entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate. In that paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of oil prices and of three additional oil-related products: gasoline, propane and heating oil. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015229382
The paper analyzes volatility spillover between exchange rate and stock market in “turbulent” and “calm”, otherwise … (regime 2) than in the bear market (regime 1) at 5958.12 days and 18.406 days, respectively. Further, analysis of volatility … leading to exchange rate volatility diminishes stock market returns by increasing investors’ risk perception, especially in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015262711
In this paper, we show that traditional comparisons of Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE) between two competing forecasts may be highly controversial. This is so because when some specific conditions of efficiency are not met, the forecast displaying the lowest MSPE will also display the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015241474
component. We show that both the time series and the term structure of conditional volatility in general is downward sloping and … reputation. Another testable implication is that in price series without a policy reversal, implied volatility from option prices … will exceed actual volatility. Over time, and in the absence of a reversal, this wedge progressively disappears. This may …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009460048
component. We show that both the time series and the term structure of conditional volatility in general is downward sloping and … reputation. Another testable implication is that in price series without a policy reversal, implied volatility from option prices … will exceed actual volatility. Over time and in the absence of a reversal, this wedge progressively disappears. This may be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009460195
. In order to test the model's implications on expected volatility we compute option prices under the generated hazard … volatility in general is downward sloping and its overall level falls steadily over time, although it may exhibit initially a … hump shape in the case of very low initial reputation. In time series without a policy reversal, implied volatility from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009460360
This paper aims to examine the long term relationship between German and three Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) equity markets. Application of Johansen as well as Engle-Granger cointegration tests show that there is no long-term relationship among these markets while the Gregory-Hansen...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015221025
by proposing an exponential weighted moving average model that jointly estimates volatility, skewness and kurtosis over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015232396
This paper analyses whether the Calciocaos, which involved some Italian listed sport companies, impacted on the performance of the Dow Jones Stoxx Football index and if this was spread through shock propagation. The Calciocaos impact is assessed by using a cointegrated vector autoregression...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015234522
Accurate and economically useful oil price forecasts have gained significant importance over the last decade. The majority of the studies use information from the oil market fundamentals to generate oil price forecasts. Nevertheless, the extant literature has convincingly shown that oil prices...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015256187