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Making Forecasts for Chaotic Processes in the Presence of Model Error

Danforth, Christopher M - 2006

Numerical weather forecast errors are generated by model deficiencies and by errors in the initial conditions which interact and grow nonlinearly. With recent progress in data assimilation, the accuracy in the initial conditions has been substantially improved so that accounting for systematic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009450747

Optimal harvesting of fish stocks under a time-varying discount rate

Duncan, Stephen; Hepburn, Cameron; Papachristodoulou, … - 2011

Optimal control theory has been extensively used to determine the optimal harvesting policy for renewable resources such as fish stocks. In such optimisations, it is common to maximise the discounted utility of harvesting over time, employing a constant time discount rate. However, evidence from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009441415

Management cybernetics: Computer simulation models of operational management organizations

Alshawi, S - 1986

Cybernetics is the science of effective organization, i.e. the science that describes the general principles of growth, learning and adaptation in complex, dynamical systems.Stafford Beer regards his viable system model as a design for effective formal organization. He also declares that since...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009465602

Semiparametric Inference for Surrogate Endpoints with Bivariate Censored Data

Ghosh, Debashis - 2008

Considerable attention has been recently paid to the use of surrogate endpoints in clinical research. We deal with the situation where the two endpoints are both right censored. While proportional hazards analyses are typically used for this setting, their use leads to several complications. In...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009477556

Empirical Analysis of Farm Credit Risk Under the Structure Model

Yan, Yan - 2009

models. In the third part of the study, copula approaches as an alternative are applied to measure farm credit risk under the … other industries.Estimated average asset correlation from Gaussian and t copula is 11%, similar to that by using a single … factor model (Katchova and Barry 2005). The estimated average default correlation from Gaussian copula is less than 1% while …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009477926

Credit Default Swaps as Hedging Instruments Against Banks' Stock Price Fluctuations Before and During Financial Crisis

Volosenkina, Viktorija - 2010

In this paper dependence between credit default swap (CDS) values and stock price movements of the largest European banking groups is examined and effectiveness of the usage of CDS contracts as a tool to hedge exposure to the price movements of the underlying stock during the pre-crisis and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009478570

Accommodating flexible spatial and social dependency structures in discrete choice models of activity-based travel demand modeling

Bhat, Chandra R. (contributor) - 2010

-response choice models. This is achieved by adopting different copula-based methodologies, which offer flexible dependency structures … methodology to capture the social dependency (or correlation) across observational units. In particular, a clustered copula …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009429372

A copula based joint multinomial discrete-hazard model of work arrangement choice and telecommuting duration

Bhat, Chandra R. (contributor) - 2009

copula based joint discrete multinomial-duration model of choice accommodating the two dimensions of work related choices …-education, responsibility for child-care, family ties act as driving forces for adopting telecommuting. The sign of the Gaussian copula …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009429390

Drought Analysis Based on Copulas

Chen, Lu; Singh, Vijay P; Guo, Shenglian - 2011

that the Student copula was more appropriate for drought analysis in the selected area. Drought probabilities and return … periods were calculated and analyzed based on the four-dimensional copula. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009430735

On the Systemic Nature of Weather Risk

Xu, Wei; Filler, Gunther; Odening, Martin; Okhrin, Ostap - 2009

conditions in different locations.For that purpose copula methods are employed that allow an adequate descriptionof stochastic …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009444681