This paper shows that the response of agricultural commodity prices in the U.S. related to fluctuations in oil prices in the international market may differ greatly depending on whether the increase is driven by demand or supply shocks in the crude oil market. In the long-run, around 2-7 percent...

Based on a large-scale survey conducted in 11 large and small eastern cities in 2002, this study employs ordered probit models to estimate the effects of demographic and socio-economic variables on the likelihood of biotech food acceptance in China. This study also employs a dichotomous choice...

This paper delves into China’s differential growths in trade flows with high income and developing countries by focusing on bilateral content of trade data over the time period 1978-2005. Unlike other studies, we account for end use of traded goods ranging from primary, intermediate, and...

China’s agricultural and trade policies have been shifting despite little change in policy objectives. This paper investigates potential implications of recent agriculture policies applied in China, and quantitatively analyzes their impacts on domestic and international commodity markets....

Replaced with revised version of paper 06/12/07.

This paper examines the structural adjustments induced as China moved from a planned economy that subsidized capital-intensive industry at the expense of agriculture to a nationally integrated market economy more fitting with China's underlying resource endowments. We argue that there were few...

One revelation from the 2008 Global Financial Crisis was the fragility of models and assumptions based on samples too short to include periods of high volatility, and this study attempts to remedy that short-coming for USDA’s development of long run cotton price projections. Real cotton prices...

We derive a set of stylized facts about USDA’s soybean supply and demand forecasts and draw implications from these results for efforts to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. USDA’s short run soybean supply and demand forecasts are inefficient, with several key variables significantly...

This report examines China’s 2011-13 attempt to maintain a high level of price support for its cotton producers, analyzing the policy’s motivation, its consequences to date, and the impacts of various adjustment alternatives China might pursue. With China’s wages rising rapidly in recent...

Uzbekistan is the seventh largest global cotton producer and third largest cotton supplier for world markets. Uzbekistan’s Government policies largely shield cotton producers from world market price signals, and cotton area has changed little over the past decade despite strong international...