This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

House prices have risen quite sharply since 2000. Coming on the heels of a stock market crash, many analysts have raised the specter of collapse in house prices and have conjured up dire consequences from such a collapse. This article examines the extent of the house price rise, whether there...

An extensive literature has analyzed the implications of hidden shifts in the dividend growth rate. However, corresponding research on learning about growth persistence is completely lacking. Hidden persistence is a novel way to introduce long-run risk into standard business-cycle models of...

In this paper we use a heterogeneously endowed Overlapping Generation model (OLG) in an experimental framework. . In our experimental OLG economy young subjects are asked either to predict the inflation rate for the next period or to decide his/her savings for the current period. We find that...

The article analyzes the realpolitik strategic offensive behavior of PRC’s centralized banking after joining the GATT and WTO. With the Bretton Woods and issuance of USD anchored to gold, the PRC State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration (SASAC) of the import-export control regime...

The article analyzes the realpolitik strategic offensive behavior of PRC’s centralized banking after joining the GATT and WTO. With the Bretton Woods and issuance of USD anchored to gold, the PRC State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration (SASAC) of the import-export control regime...

In this paper relationship between the market overconfidence and occurrence of the stock-prices’ bubbles is investigated. Sixty participants traded in ten experimental markets of the two types: rational and overconfident. Markets are constructed on the basis of subjects’ overconfidence,...

We report on experimental markets for a contingent claim asset that eight subjects traded for nine periods before the state was revealed. There is an informative binary signal that arrives after each of the first eight trading rounds. In our baseline treatment the realization of the signal is...

We report on experimental markets for a contingent claim asset that eight subjects traded for nine periods before the state was revealed. There is an informative binary signal that arrives after each of the first eight trading rounds. In our baseline treatment the realization of the signal is...

In this paper relationship between the market overconfidence and occurrence of the stock-prices’ bubbles is investigated. Sixty participants traded in ten experimental markets of the two types: rational and overconfident. Markets are constructed on the basis of subjects’ overconfidence,...