The paper shows that in a New Keynesian (NK) model, an active interest rate feedback monetary policy, when combined with a Ricardian passive fiscal policy, à la Leeper-Woodford, may induce the onset of a Shilnikov chaotic attractor in the region of the parameter space where uniqueness of the...

One of the main tasks in the study of financial and economic processes is forecasting and analysis of the dynamics of these processes. Within this task lie important research questions including how to determine the qualitative properties of the dynamics (stable, unstable, deterministic chaotic,...

This paper uses the Hartman-Stampacchia theorems as primary tool to prove the Gale-Nikaido-Debreu lemma. It also establishes a full equivalence circle among the Hartman Stampacchia theorems, the Gale-Nikaido-Debreu lemmas, and Kakutani and Brouwer fixed point theorems.

In this paper we show that the MSCI ACWI Metals and Mining Index has the ability to predict base metal prices. We use both in-sample and out-of-sample exercises to conduct such examination. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the present-value model for stock-price...

We develop a new closed-form approximation method for pricing spread options. Numerical analysis shows that our method is more accurate than existing analytical approximations. Our method is also extremely fast, with computing time more than two orders of magnitude shorter than one-dimensional...

This paper explores how present value varies over time when the underlying cash flow has a deterministic period. I assume that cash flows are known with certainty and follow a cycle with a long or short period. When the cash flow has a short period, the present value is relatively stable over...

In this notice we are comment popular approaches to the credit risk modeling.

We propose a stochastic spanning approach to assess whether a traditional portfolio of stocks and bonds spans augmented portfolios including commodities, foreign exchange, and real estate. We empirically show that in all seven portfolio combinations, the augmented portfolio is not spanned by the...

We propose a stochastic spanning approach to assess whether a traditional portfolio of stocks and bonds spans augmented portfolios including commodities, foreign exchange, and real estate. We empirically show that in all seven portfolio combinations, the augmented portfolio is not spanned by the...

This research represents some thoughts on the accurate characterization of the stock market indexes trends in the conditions of the nonlinear capital flows at the stock exchanges in the global capital markets. We make our original research proposal that the nonlinear capital flows in the process...