This is a summary of the paper entitled : “The Mean Squared Prediction Error Paradox”. In that paper, we show that traditional comparisons of Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE) between two competing forecasts may be highly controversial. This is so because when some specific conditions of...

This draft is a summary of the paper entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate. In that paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of oil prices and of three additional oil-related products: gasoline, propane and heating oil. The...

The purpose of this work is to identify variables that are relevant to the copper price setting in the international market. Thus statistical hypothesis tests and statistical tools that help to identify historical relevance and to measure the intensity of the impact of each variable on the...

In this paper we show that the MSCI ACWI Metals and Mining Index has the ability to predict base metal prices. We use both in-sample and out-of-sample exercises to conduct such examination. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the present-value model for stock-price...

The aim of this analysis is to predict whether an National Basketball Association (NBA) player will be active in the league for at least 10 years so as to be qualified for NBA's full retirement scheme which allows for the maximum benefit payable by law. We collected per game statistics for...

We propose a portfolio construction method that accounts for the regime-dependent behavior of stocks, thereby impacting their expected returns. Using a hidden Markov model (HMM) and a regime-weighted least-squares approach, we estimate forward-looking regime-conditional factors. These factors...

Non-Gaussian state-space models arise in several applications, and within this framework the binary time series setting provides a relevant example. However, unlike for Gaussian state-space models — where filtering, predictive and smoothing distributions are available in closed form — binary...

In this paper, I explore how fiscal policy decisions relate to the business cycle and, building on that, how the effects of policy interventions may vary depending on when policy is conducted in the business cycle. To assess this, I estimate a small to medium-sized DSGE model with expressive...

This study develops a hybrid model to integrate climate risks into Côte d'Ivoire’s economic policy, drawing on the work of economists like Keynes, Ostrom, Stiglitz, Sen, and Nordhaus. The model combines decentralized governance, climate risk externalities, and capacity building to address the...

Hay esbozos según los cuales las probabilidades se cuentan como la fundación de la teoría matemática de las estadísticas. Mas la significación física de las probabilidades matemáticas son oscuros, muy poco entendidos. Parecíera mejor que las probabilidades físicas se fundaran en las...