The paper presents the methodology for attaching probability distribution or intervals of variation to point forecasts. This methodology might prove significant for countries that have suffered deep structural transformations in their not very distant past. For these models, stability is more...

The last version of the Romanian macromodel (Dobrescu 2005b) incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (Dobrescu 1991-1994) or operational (Dobrescu 1996-2005a). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and...

The macromodel will be used to investigate short and medium–run economic implications of internal policies and of changes in the international context. This new version of the Romanian macromodel benefites from the experience gained by the author during the utilisation of its previous forms -...

The paper presents the Version 2000 of the Romanian macromodel (elaborated by the author). For the period 2003-2010, two scenarios have been elaborated. The first, named “Desirable” incorporates the main lines of the Strategy for integration of Romania into European Union. The second...

The central point of this paper is that both - internal and external - equilibria ought to be involved in the estimation of potential output. If only the data on inflation, unemployment rate and wages are used for its evaluation, no certainty exists that such a level will correspond to a stable...

The new (2002) version of the "Pre-Accession Economic Programme" has to take into account both the experience accumulated in the implementation of its previous (2001) form, and the changes occurred during 2001-2002 in the domestic and international environment, which have affected the Romanian...

The current study uses the 2000 version of the Romanian economy macromodel, amended only by up-dating the inflation econometric function. Special attention will be paid to: • the estimations for 2001 ; • the potential impact of the external environment deterioration upon the Romanian economy...

The new (2002) version"" of the "Pre-Accession Economic Programme" has to take into account both the experience accumulated in the implementation of its previous 2001) form, and the changes occurred during 2001-2002 in the domestic and international environment, which have affected the Romanian...

Through their goals, the macroeconomic policies aim to the near or farther future, this being the reason for which evolutions have to be anticipated. Deliberately or not, the decision-makers continuously operate with mental schemes of prospective nature. Many times, these procedures are purely...

The paper characterizes five operational versions of the macromodels of the Romanian transition economy, elaborated during 1995-2000 years. • The first (1996) was finalized after the author’s visit at the Hoover Institution. This version, as well as the following ones, took into...