This is a summary of the paper entitled : “The Mean Squared Prediction Error Paradox”. In that paper, we show that traditional comparisons of Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE) between two competing forecasts may be highly controversial. This is so because when some specific conditions of...

In this paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of the London Metal Exchange Index and of the six primary non-ferrous metals that are part of the index: aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. The economic relationship hinges on the present-value...

We consider mandatory components of the economic theory: two scales and four dimensions composed by collective agent’s economic variables, transactions and expectations and by the economic policy. We consider all economic variables, transactions and expectations on an equal footing and don’t...

In this paper we show that the MSCI ACWI Metals and Mining Index has the ability to predict base metal prices. We use both in-sample and out-of-sample exercises to conduct such examination. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the present-value model for stock-price...

The economic and financial variables of economic agents determine macroeconomic variables. Current models consider agents’ variables that are determined by the sums of values and volumes of agents’ trades during some time interval Δ. We call them first-order economic variables. We describe...

In this article, we use recently developed oanel causality and cointegration techniques to examine the long-run relationship between inflation and economic growth of the 8 WAEMU countries. A panel of 256 observations was therefore constituted from the IMF (WDI) and BCEAO database. Our results...

In this article, we use recently developed panel causality and cointegration techniques to examine the long-run relationship between inflation and economic growth of the 8 WAEMU countries. A panel of 256 observations was therefore constituted from the IMF (WDI) and BCEAO database. Our results...

In this article, we use recently developed panel causality and cointegration techniques to examine the long-term relationship between inflation and economic growth in the 8 WAEMU countries. A panel of 256 observations was thus constituted from the IMF (WDI) and CBWAS database. Our results...

The current debate on financial inclusion pays little attention to whether financial inclusion is pro-cyclical with the fluctuating business cycle. This article investigates the relationship between financial inclusion and the business cycle. The findings reveal that the level of savings and the...

The different target of the time period has been established over the past two decades in the institutionalization of a single currency union in West Africa. Depending on varied reasons the proposed programs have always failed before the set timelines in respect of ECOWAS monetary unification...