The variational approach to Bayesian inference enables simultaneous estimation of model parameters and model complexity. An interesting feature of this approach is that it also leads to an automatic choice of model complexity. Empirical results from the analysis of hidden Markov models with...

Many processes of interest in social science research are recorded as nominal variables with two or more categories such as employment status, occupation, political preference and self-reported health status. With panel data it is possible to analyse the transitions of individuals between...

This paper first identifies the level of cyclical systemic risks in Spain, also calibrating their impact on the solvency of the banking system, and, second, assesses the costs and benefits of the countercyclical use of capital requirements. The first part of the paper is based on an integrated...

Este documento presenta un conjunto amplio de análisis para, en primer lugar, identificar el nivel de los riesgos sistémicos cíclicos en España y calibrar su impacto sobre la solvencia del sistema bancario y, adicionalmente, valorar los costes y beneficios del uso contracíclico de los...