FTS in Business cycles examines the dynamic effects and empirical significance of Flight to Safety (FTS) shocks in the context of US business cycles. FTS represents a sudden preference for safe over risky investments and contains important information on agents’ time-varying risk-aversion and...

We examine the accuracy of survey-based expectations of the Chilean exchange rate relative to the US dollar. Our out-of-sample analysis reveals that survey-based forecasts outperform the Driftless Random Walk (DRW) in terms of Mean Squared Prediction Error at several forecasting horizons. This...

Engle-Granger methodology follows two-step estimations. The first step generates the residuals and the second step employs generated residuals to estimate a regression of first-differenced residuals on lagged residuals. Hence, any possible error from the first step will be carried into second...

Investment behavior at the firm level is characterized by lumpy adjustments and frequent periods of inactivity. Low investment rates are particularly puzzling in transition economies where an urgent need of modernization exists. The literature offers two explanations for. Firstly,...

The collapse of former communist regime in Central and Eastern Europe opened the transition period from centrally planned to market oriented economies. Thus, the exploration of economic systems in the special situation of transition has become an interesting research topic. The exposition plan...

In the paper model of macroeconomic turnover and its possibilities for investments modelling are shown. The model consists from four blocks: in the first the theoretical model is described. In the second the model is reflected in accordance with the requirements of system dynamics method, there...

In the realm of macroeconomic theory, is well established that investment decisions play an instrumental role in the determination of the level of output and employment; nevertheless, little progress has been made in relation to the theoretical aspects of these decisions. This paper, inspired by...

Uneven economic growth during the recent years raise the question whether any factor of economic growth aside economic cycle fluctuations exists in Latvia. The objective of the Doctoral Thesis is, to assess the factors of economic growth in Latvia using econometric modelling techniques, and to...

Nevienmērīga ekonomikas izaugsme pēdējo gadu laikā aktualizēja jautājumu par to vai Latvijā pastāv vismaz viens ekonomikas izaugsmes faktors, kas nav saistīts ar ekonomikas cikla svārstībām. Promocijas darba mērķis ir ar ekonometriskās modelēšanas metodēm noskaidrot Latvijas...

The standard neoclassical growth accounting (parametric) framework serves to explain only a minor part of labour productivity growth and its cross-country differences, thus implying an important role (as yet unexplained) for the Solow Residual or the Total Factor Productivity (TFP). However, the...