In this paper I examine the Okun–Friedman hypothesis of the link between inflation and inflation uncertainty using historical international data on the monthly CPI. An indicator of inflation uncertainty at the two-years-ahead horizon is derived from a time-series model of inflation with...

In this paper, we challenge the notion of a monotonic relationship between inflation and economic growth in South Africa. In particular, we establish threshold effects in the inflation-growth relationship using a smooth transition regression (STR) model which is applied on data collected between...

This study investigates the nexus between tourism development and house prices in the Republic of Cyprus over the period spanning from 2005Q1 to 2016Q4. Tourism indicators vis-à-vis tourism arrivals along with other explanatory variables (domestic credit, land area per person, and the consumer...

This paper assessed the effects of housing market shocks on real output in South Africa over the period 1969Q4 – 2014Q4, by emphasizing the real private consumption channel. The agnostic identification procedure employed in this paper has delivered impulse responses that are overall consistent...

This paper assessed the effects of housing market shocks on real output in South Africa over the period 1969Q4 – 2014Q4, by emphasizing the real private consumption channel. The agnostic identification procedure employed in this paper has delivered impulse responses that are overall consistent...

This paper projects house and equity prices following different types of macroeconomic shocks since the 1870s in 17 western economies. In doing so, we classify macroeconomic downturns into three distinct groups: normal recessions, financial recessions, and disasters. By combining three newly...

We use novel and unique data to study the effect of price changes in the market for luxury and middle class homes. We find that luxury home sales respond less to price changes than the middle-class home sales; in the market for luxury homes, past prices affect current prices; luxury home prices...

This paper evaluates the ability of various indicators related to macroeconomic fundamentals, credit conditions, and housing supply to predict house price growth in the United States during the post-financial crisis period. We find that the inclusion of different measures of housing supply...

The ultimate purpose of macroprudential policy is to avoid financial instability, such as banking crises, which have a long-lasting and devastating effect on the economy. Although a growing number of studies have examined the effects of macroprudential policy on credit growth, few empirical...