As the COVID-19 crisis lingers, emerging market and developing economies are entering perilous waters that evoke memories of past debt defaults. Although all countries amassed debt to fight the pandemic, the economic recovery in these economies substantially lags their advanced economy...

Admittedly, the balance of power within the European institutions, especially those related to financial stability and economic policy, is controlled by Germany. The German Federal Republic as the "main creditor" controls the Eurogroup, the Euro Working Group and has privileged relations with...

In this paper we show that the MSCI ACWI Metals and Mining Index has the ability to predict base metal prices. We use both in-sample and out-of-sample exercises to conduct such examination. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the present-value model for stock-price...

Textual analysis of the NBER Working Papers published during 1999–2016 is done to assess the effects of the 2007–2009 crisis on the academic literature. The volume of crisis-related WPs is counter-cyclical, lagging the financial-instability-index. WPs by the Monetary-Economics,...

Textual analysis of 14,270 NBER Working Papers published during 1999–2016 is done to assess the effects of the 2008 crisis on the economics literature. The volume of crisis-related WPs is counter-cyclical, lagging the financial-instability-index. WPs by the Monetary-Economics, Asset-Pricing,...

The present study empirically investigates the inter-linkages and co-movement between different asset class namely Crude, Gold, Nifty 50 Stock Index and Rupee-Dollar Exchange Rate during the two crisis periods viz. the Sub-Prime and the Coronavirus Crisis. The methodology employed for...

The theory of fair geometric returns, F theory for short, rejects the generally accepted notion that volatility is the risk of risky assets. Instead, it claims that capital market volatility, in turn, constitutes the maximum achievable geometric return. In order to get to the point, F theory, in...

The economic and financial variables of economic agents determine macroeconomic variables. Current models consider agents’ variables that are determined by the sums of values and volumes of agents’ trades during some time interval Δ. We call them first-order economic variables. We describe...

We consider the randomness of values and volumes of market deals as a major factor that describes lower bounds of uncertainty and upper limits on the accuracy of the forecasts of macroeconomic variables, prices, and returns. We introduce random macroeconomic variables, whose average values...

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the diverse economic and social determinants that have shaped the developmental trajectory of Bangladesh. It explores the historical evolution of the country from its pre-independence struggles through its post-independence recovery, resilience,...