Weather derivatives enable energy companies to protect themselves against weather risk. Weather ensemble predictions are generated from atmospheric models and consist of multiple future scenarios for a weather variable. They can be used to forecast the density of the payoff from a weather...

Density forecasts for weather variables are useful for the many industries exposed to weather risk. Weather ensemble predictions are generated from atmospheric models and consist of multiple future scenarios for a weather variable. The distribution of the scenarios can be used as a density...

Weather forecasts are an important input to many electricity demand forecasting models. This study investigates the use of weather ensemble predictions in electricity demand forecasting for lead times from 1 to 10 days ahead. A weather ensemble prediction consists of 51 scenarios for a weather...

In recent years, a large amount of literature has evolved on the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for electric load forecasting. ANNs are particularly appealing because of their ability to model an unspecified nonlinear relationship between load and weather variables. Weather forecasts...

Site-specific probability density rainfall forecasts are needed to price insurance premiums, contracts, and other financial products based on precipitation. The spatiotemporal correlations in U.K. daily rainfall amounts over the Thames Valley are investigated and statistical Markov chain...

This paper uses intraday electricity demand data from 10 European countries as the basis of an empirical comparison of univariate methods for prediction up to a day-ahead. A notable feature of the time series is the presence of both an intraweek and an intraday seasonal cycle. The forecasting...

This empirical paper compares the accuracy of six univariate methods for short-term electricity demand forecasting for lead times up to a day ahead. The very short lead times are of particular interest as univariate methods are often replaced by multivariate methods for prediction beyond about...

In areas from medicine to climate change to economics, we are faced with huge challenges and a need for accurate forecasts, yet our ability to predict the future has been found wanting. The basic problem is that complex systems such as the atmosphere or the economy cannot be reduced to simple...