This empirical paper compares the accuracy of six univariate methods for short-term electricity demand forecasting for lead times up to a day ahead. The very short lead times are of particular interest as univariate methods are often replaced by multivariate methods for prediction beyond about...

Traditionally, the quality of a forecasting model is judged by how it compares, in terms of accuracy, to alternative models. However, by providing a relative measure, no indication is given as to how much scope there might be for improvements beyond the benchmark model. When judgemental methods...

Exponential smoothing methods do not involve a formal procedure for identifying the underlying data generating process. The issue is then whether prediction intervals should be estimated by a theoretical approach, with the assumption that the method is optimal in some sense, or by an empirical...

Despite a considerable literature on the combination of forecasts, there is little guidance regarding the assessment of their uncertainty. Since combining methods do not involve a formal procedure for identifying the underlying data generating model, theoretical variance expressions are not...

A novel proposal for combining forecast distributions is to use quantile regression to combine quantile estimates. We consider the usefulness of the resultant linear combining weights. If the quantile estimates are unbiased, then there is strong intuitive appeal for omitting the constant and...

This paper investigates the extent to which the outcomes of the 2008 Research Assessment Exercise, determined by peer review, can be explained by a set of quantitative indicators, some of which were made available to the review panels. Three cognate units of assessment are examined in detail:...

The UK's higher education funding councils have proposed reducing the number of submitted outputs from four to three in the forthcoming Research Excellence Framework to reduce the burden on panel members. This reduction is considered to be sufficient for panels to form a robust view of the...

Efficient supply chain management relies on accurate demand forecasting. Typically,forecasts are required at frequent intervals for many items. Forecasting methods suitable for this application are those that can be relied upon to produce robust and accurate predictions when implemented within...

This paper introduces five new univariate exponentially weighted methods for forecasting intraday time series that contain both intraweek and intraday seasonal cycles. Applications of relevance include forecasting volumes of call centre arrivals, transportation, e-mail traffic and electricity...

Artificial neural networks have frequently been proposed for electricity load forecasting because of their capabilities for the nonlinear modelling of large multivariate data sets. Modelling with neural networks is not an easy task though; two of the main challenges are defining the appropriate...