explaining exchange rate movements. The asset market theory of exchange rate determination implies that exchange rates are mainly … driven by the development of macroeconomic fundamentals. Furthermore the asset market theory assumes that foreign exchange … speculation, economic theory states that speculation can have either a stabilizing effect or a destabilizing effect on exchange …

fundamental factors do contribute little to the forecast. Especially in the '80s empirical investigations about the information …

-WOODS - 3. THEORIE DER ZIELZONEN - 4. WECHSELKURSSPEKULATION IM KRUGMAN-MODELL - 5. WECHSELKURSSPEKULATION IN ZIELZONEN ALS … analysed:1. INTRODUCTION - 2. THE DISCUSSION ABOUT TARGET ZONES IN THE POST BRETTON WOODS ERA - 3. TARGET ZONE THEORY - 4 …

This paper evaluates the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of eleven models for monthly volatility in fifteen stock … parameters while the second half is for the forecast period. The following models are employed: a random walk model, a historical … forecasting models. Asymmetric loss functions are employed to penalize under-/over-prediction. When under-predictions are …

output and inflation. In particular, we evaluate the impact of the regime shift on the forecasting performance of reduced … insignificant. The impact on ouput forecasting accuracy would be comparatively much larger if the new monetary union regime is …

Trueman [1994] provides a model of forecasting behavior in which analysts do not always make forecasts that are … sessions to investigate individual forecasting behavior. In each session, four individuals predict earnings based on possibly … divergent information. We manipulate forecast ability so that two individuals are strong analysts and two are weak. In three …