The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of public sentiment on tail risk forecasting. In this framework, we extend the Realized Exponential GARCH model to directly incorporate information from realized volatility measures and exogenous variables. Several indices related to social...

The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of public sentiment on tail risk forecasting. In this framework, we extend the Realized Exponential GARCH model to directly incorporate information from realized volatility measures and exogenous variables, thus resulting in a novel dynamically...

In this study, we develop the first daily news-based economic policy uncertainty [EPU] index for the largest economy in Africa which was hitherto suppressed in the various EPU indices published in recent times. With the renewed interest in Africa as an important destination for investments from...

The research article presents the highly innovative theoretical research results: 1) the new quantum microeconomics theory in the quantum econophysics science is formulated; the idea on the existence of the discrete-time induced quantum transitions of firm’s earnings (the firm’s value) in the...

The research article presents the highly innovative theoretical research results: 1) the new quantum microeconomics theory in the quantum econophysics science is formulated; the idea on the existence of the discrete-time induced quantum transitions of firm’s earnings (the firm’s value) in the...

We discuss the economic reasons why the predictions of price and return statistical moments in the coming decades, in the best case, will be limited by their averages and volatilities. That limits the accuracy of the forecasts of price and return probabilities by Gaussian distributions. The...

An artificial neural network (hence after, ANN) is an information processing paradigm that is inspired by the way biological nervous systems, such as the brain, process information. In previous two decades, ANN applications in economics and finance; for such tasks as pattern reorganization, and...

This paper investigates the use of DMA approach for identifying good inflation predictors and forecasting inflation in Mongolia, one of the most commodity dependent economies, using dynamic model averaging (DMA). The DMA approach allows for both set of predictors for inflation and marginal...

This paper presents evidence that accounting (or flow-of-fund) macroeconomic models helped anticipate the credit crisis and economic recession. Equilibrium models ubiquitous in mainstream policy and research did not. This study identifies core differences, traces their intellectual pedigrees,...

This paper criticises the econometric inflation uncertainty proxies found in the literature, which show an overly optimistic picture about our real ability to forecast, and highlights the sharp contrast between the evidence portrayed by that literature and the evidence conveyed by the literature...