Showing 1 - 10 of 4,385
In this paper, we propose a novel approach to classifying inflation-targeting (IT) economies based on fractionally … of inflation rate series to identify four de facto IT strategies, or ‘shades’ of IT. Moving from negative orders of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015214867
Much of the US inflation forecasting literature deals with examining the ability of macroeconomic indicators to predict … the mean of future inflation, and the overwhelming evidence suggests that the macroeconomic indicators provide little or … no predictability. In this paper, we expand the scope of inflation predictability and explore whether macroeconomic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015216359
In this paper I examine the Okun–Friedman hypothesis of the link between inflation and inflation uncertainty using … historical international data on the monthly CPI. An indicator of inflation uncertainty at the two-years-ahead horizon is derived … from a time-series model of inflation with time-varying parameters by means of Monte Carlo simulations. This indicator is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015224370
In this paper, we study some empirical issues in the estimation of a New-Keynesian Phillips curve for Tunisia. In this purpose, we compare the performance of the strict and hybrid forms in the validation of data. In addition, we try to establish the sensitivity of the Phillips curve estimation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015226158
using the autoregressive distributive (ARDL) model applied to quarterly data covering the post inflation targeting period of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015256695
This paper attempts to investigate the impact of demand and supply shocks on core inflation in India. Firstly, it … calculates core inflation through asymmetric trim mean approach and secondly autoregressive distributed model is used to explain … the dynamic effects of shocks on core inflation. Empirical findings based on ARDL bound test confirms the existence of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015260319
We examine the accuracy of survey-based expectations of the Chilean exchange rate relative to the US dollar. Our out-of-sample analysis reveals that survey-based forecasts outperform the Driftless Random Walk (DRW) in terms of Mean Squared Prediction Error at several forecasting horizons. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015262273
In this paper, we show that traditional comparisons of Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE) between two competing forecasts may be highly controversial. This is so because when some specific conditions of efficiency are not met, the forecast displaying the lowest MSPE will also display the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015241474
Can the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) substantially control inflation within their set target of 3-6 percent? We … aggregated inflation data collected between 2003 and 2014. To this end, we employ the three-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR … for varying persistency within the autoregressive (AR) components of the inflation process. Our empirical explorations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015243956
interest by academics in examining the pass-through effects of monetary policy instrument to house price inflation. This study … examines the asymmetric pass through effects from monetary policy to house price inflation for the case of South Africa. Our … empirical results reveal a negative and significant pass through from interest rates to house price inflation, even though such …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015251266