We examine the accuracy of survey-based expectations of the Chilean exchange rate relative to the US dollar. Our out-of-sample analysis reveals that survey-based forecasts outperform the Driftless Random Walk (DRW) in terms of Mean Squared Prediction Error at several forecasting horizons. This...

The paper develops a dynamic Input Output - Stock Flow consistent model based on the Supermultiplier approach. This framework integrates the dimension of output determination with the system of relative prices. Through this model, we define the determinants of the public debt-to-GDP ratio and...

The paper develops a dynamic Input Output - Stock Flow consistent model based on the Supermultiplier approach. This framework integrates the dimension of output determination with the system of relative prices. Through this model, we define the determinants of the public debt-to-GDP ratio and...

The paper develops a dynamic Input Output - Stock Flow Consistent model based on the Supermultiplier approach. This framework integrates the dimension of output determination with the system of relative prices. Through this model, we define the determinants of the public debt-to-GDP ratio and...

Unprecedented is a word that best describes the current state of advanced economies. Interest rates are low in many advanced countries and negative in a few others suggesting that monetary policy has lost its effectiveness. The economic policy tool that has not been implemented yet by many...

Conventional empirical models of monetary policy transmission in emerging market economies produce puzzling results: monetary tightening often leads to an increase in prices (the price puzzle) and depreciation of the currency (the FX puzzle). We show that incorporating forward-looking...

Conventional empirical models of monetary policy transmission in emerging market economies produce puzzling results: monetary tightening often leads to an increase in prices (the price puzzle) and depreciation of the currency (the FX puzzle). We show that incorporating forward-looking...

The literature on the yield curve deals with the capacity to predict the future inflation and the future real growth from the term structure of the interest rates. The aim of the paper is to verify this predictive power of the yield curve for the European Union at 16 countries in the 1995-2008...

In this paper we suggest a simple empirical and model-independent measure of Central Banks' Conservatism, based on the Taylor curve. This new indicator can easily be extended in time and space, whatever the underlying monetary regime of the considered countries. We demonstrate that it evolves in...

This paper shows that a shift from Ramsey optimal policy under short term commitment (based on a negative-feedback mechanism) to a Taylor rule (based on positive-feedback mechanism) in the new-Keynesian model is in fact a Hopf bifurcation, with opposite policy advice. The number of stable...