This paper examines the behaviour of disaggregated output over the economic cycle in South Africa. Aggregate output and output of the economic sectors and industries were decomposed into their transitory and potential components. These components were then examined for comovement. The results of...

This paper examines the behaviour of disaggregated output over the economic cycle in South Africa. Aggregate output and output of the economic sectors and industries were decomposed into their transitory and potential components. These components were then examined for comovement. The results of...

This paper examines the behaviour of disaggregated output over the economic cycle in South Africa. Aggregate output and output of the economic sectors and industries were decomposed into their transitory and potential components. These components were then examined for comovement. The results of...

I estimate DSGE models with recurring regime changes in monetary policy (inflation target and reaction coefficients), technology (growth rate and volatility), and/or nominal price rigidities. In the models, agents are assumed to know deep parameter values but make probabilistic inference about...

Abstract Davidson and MacKinnon’s J-test was developed to test non-nested model specification. In empirical applications, however, when the alternate specifications fit the data well the J test may fail to distinguish between the true and false models: the J test will either reject, or fail to...

Bayesian inference requires an analyst to set priors. Setting the right prior is crucial for precise forecasts. This paper analyzes how optimal prior changes when an economy is hit by a recession. For this task, an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model is chosen. The results show that a...

This paper presents the R package bayesGARCH which provides functions for the Bayesian estimation of the parsimonious but effective GARCH(1,1) model with Student-t innovations. The estimation procedure is fully automatic and thus avoids the time-consuming and difficult task of tuning a sampling...

In this paper, we revisit the well-known UK inflation model by Hendry (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2001, 16:255-275. doi:10.1002/jae.615). We replicate the results in a narrow sense using the gretl and PcGive programs. In a wide sense, we extend the study of model uncertainty using the...

Bayesian inference requires an analyst to set priors. Setting the right prior is crucial for precise forecasts. This paper analyzes how optimal Litterman prior changes when an economy is hit by a recession. For this task, an autoregressive distributed lag model is chosen. The results show that a...

I generate priors for a VAR from four competing models of economic fluctuations: a standard RBC model, Fisher’s (2006) investment-specific technology shocks model, an RBC model with capital adjustment costs and habit formation, and a sticky price model with an unaccommodating monetary...