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Using sentiment to predict GDP growth and stock returns
Guzman, Giselle C. - 2007
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015233041
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Using sentiment to predict GDP growth and stock returns
Guzman, Giselle C. - 2008
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015230542
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Using sentiment surveys to predict GDP growth and stock returns
Guzman, Giselle C. - 2008
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015230635
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Myopic households on a stable path: the neoclassical growth model with rule-based expectations
Teglio, Andrea; Catalano, Michele; Petrovic, Marko - 2014
The neoclassical growth model is extended to include limitations in the forecasting capability of a rational individual, who can predict the future state of the economy only for a short time horizon. Long-term predictions are formulated according to uninformed expectations, relying solely on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015213169
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Using sentiment surveys to predict GDP growth and stock returns
Guzman, Giselle - 2007
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015232845
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The Role of Capital on Noise Shocks
Amberger, Korie - 2013
transient compared to a permanent shock. This is due to noise shocks being predominantly consumption driven opposed to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015236781
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Learning, Expectations, and Endogenous Business Cycles
Doshchyn, Artur; Giommetti, Nicola - 2013
We show that business cycles can emerge and proliferate endogenously in the economy due to the way economic agents learn, form their expectations, and make decisions regarding savings and production for future periods. There are no exogenous shocks of any kind to productivity or any other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015238640
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Beliefs asymmetry and price stability in a cobweb model
Berardi, Michele - 2021
This work analyses the role of asymmetry in beliefs for price dynamics in a cobweb model with heterogeneous expectations and evolutionary selection of predictors. While heterogeneous but symmetric beliefs result in the rational expectations equilibrium price, the effect of asymmetry depends on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015239237
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Yeni Klasik kurama göre bütçe politikalarının değerlendirilmesi
Bilgili, Faik - 1999
The New Classical theorem asserts that (a) the individuals with rational expectations do not change their consumption … consumption decisions of the individuals, at least in the long term. This paper analyzes if demand sided fiscal policies are … paper follows impulse-response (IR) functions through VAR models in which consumption, GDP, tax and debt series are employed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015257140
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Yeni Klasik kurama göre bütçe politikalarının değerlendirilmesi
Bilgili, Faik - 1999
The New Classical theorem asserts that (a) the individuals with rational expectations do not change their consumption … consumption decisions of the individuals, at least in the long term. This paper analyzes if demand sided fiscal policies are … paper follows impulse-response (IR) functions through VAR models in which consumption, GDP, tax and debt series are employed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015257163