This paper investigates the use of DMA approach for identifying good inflation predictors and forecasting inflation in Mongolia, one of the most commodity dependent economies, using dynamic model averaging (DMA). The DMA approach allows for both set of predictors for inflation and marginal...

This paper examines the effects of a mortgage interest rate subsidy on boom and bust in the housing market by exploiting the Housing Mortgage (HM) program implemented in Mongolia. Main results are (i) the recent housing boom occurred from 2012Q2 to 2014Q1, while the housing bust lasted four...

This paper examines the dynamics of bank lending, deposit rates and interest rate spread in Mongolia using both accounting framework and Markov Regime-Switching approach. The empirical analysis suggests that the high lending rate in Mongolia is compatible with underdeveloped stock market, low...

In this paper, we empirically examine the sudden stops in capital flows in Mongolia based on Calvo et al. (2004) approach in the past two decades. We found 5 episodes of sudden stops in capital flows and 5 episodes of sudden stops in domestic credits since 1998. Domestic sudden stops lasted...

This paper examines macroeconomic impacts of Covid-19 and policy issues for recovery in Mongolia, a developing and commodity-exporting economy, by estimating a Bayesian structural vector autoregression on quarterly data. Our estimates suggest that China’s GDP and copper price shocks...

This paper develops three macroeconomic models such as large structural VAR, DSGE-based structural VAR and GAP models for Mongolia, a developing and commodity-exporting economy. All models are estimated using Bayesian methods on the quarterly data. Results suggest that (i) external shocks (i.e.,...

The present paper contains an outline of a simulation-model for stress-testing the household sector in Mongolia. The model uses data from the Household Socio-Economic Survey to assess the financial resilience of the household sector to macroeconomic shocks. The results suggest that the household...

This paper assesses the effects and transmission mechanisms of global liquidity and commodity market shocks in Mongolia, a commodity-exporting developing economy, using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. Results show that boom and bust cycles in commodity and international...

This paper presents a recent survey on development and access to finance of small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) in Mongolia. The survey covers a sample of 1922 SMEs from Ulaanbaatar (capital city) and 21 provinces. We find that banks and local government administration are the most...

The paper argues that the CEO compensation policy of a mining company should consider the business cycle when evaluating the CEO’s performance of long-term incentive plan (LTIP). As an example, the case study of BHP Billiton supports the argument that the business cycle significantly affects...