Showing 1 - 10 of 4,086
This paper analyses the India sovereign yield to find out the principal factors affecting the term structure of interest rate changes. We apply Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on our data consisting of zero coupon interest rates derived from government bond trading using Nelson-Siegel...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015232351
We examine the accuracy of survey-based expectations of the Chilean exchange rate relative to the US dollar. Our out-of-sample analysis reveals that survey-based forecasts outperform the Driftless Random Walk (DRW) in terms of Mean Squared Prediction Error at several forecasting horizons. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015262273
time). Yet, even during periods of low inflation or deflation, nominal financial statements violate this assumption. I … posit that, while the effects of inflation are not recognized in nominal statements, such effects may have economic … consequences. I find that unrecognized inflation gains and losses help predict future cash flows as these gains and losses turn …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015240617
In this paper, we show that traditional comparisons of Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE) between two competing forecasts may be highly controversial. This is so because when some specific conditions of efficiency are not met, the forecast displaying the lowest MSPE will also display the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015241474
This paper analyzes the effects of a change in a small but time-varying “disaster risk” à la Gourio (2012) in a New … Keynesian model. In a real business cycle framework, the disaster risk has been successful in replicating observed moments of … sticky prices allows to conciliate recessionary effects of the disaster risk with a plausible value of the EIS. A higher …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015248384
inflation expectations are obtained. This approach clarifies the mechanisms behind a negative risk premium: an inflation …This paper proposes a new methodology for extracting inflation expectations from financial markets. For this purpose, a … synthetic financial asset is built whose returns are matched with the inflation rate by construction. The methodology estimates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015250801
estimation and inference of Vector Autoregressive Models (VARs). Unlike previous research on the topic, we identify inflation … the crypto space. Still, empirical evidence on whether Bitcoin is an asset that protects investors against inflation is … still inconclusive. To contribute to this debate, we analyze the effect of inflation shocks on bitcoin returns through the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015213262
product (GDP), interest rates, and inflation rates for financial deepening (FD) in Ghana. GDP per capita and interest rates … exhibit statistically significant impacts on FD in Ghana, whereas inflation exerts an insignificant inverse effect. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015213482
that generate unacceptable levels of inflation. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015214329
We model a typical Asian-crisis-economy using dynamic general equilibrium techniques. Meaningful exchange rates obtain from nontrivial demands for fiat currencies. Sudden stops/bank-panics are possible, and key for evaluating the relative merits of alternative exchange rate regimes in promoting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015215909