Researchers in the social sciences as well as other disciplines rely on statistical models to develop and test theories. The standard approach applies multivariate analysis—usually linear regression—and statistical hypothesis testing to observational data. The researcher may have several...

In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...

In this paper, new tests for the independence of two high-dimensional vectors are investigated. We consider the case where the dimension of the vectors increases with the sample size and propose multivariate analysis of variance-type statistics for the hypothesis of a block diagonal covariance...

A test can be said to ‘detect’ an alternative hypothesis only if its power against this alternative exceeds its size. We use this principle to define the implicit null and alternative for a test. We analyze the performance of several tests for location and scale parameters. We show that...

In this paper, we show that traditional comparisons of Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE) between two competing forecasts may be highly controversial. This is so because when some specific conditions of efficiency are not met, the forecast displaying the lowest MSPE will also display the...

This paper demonstrates how sequential fractional Dickey-Fuller (FDF in short) test can be implemented in EViews. We first briefly introduce how to use the fracdiff an EViews add-in to compute the fractional difference of the Nile data. Next, we give the program that executes the sequential FDF...

This manuscript provides an introduction to statistics and probability method. It is structured around three themes developed in five chapters. The first part is an introduction to probability calculations in which we introduce the notions of elementary probability, probabilized spaces, random...

Engle-Granger methodology follows two-step estimations. The first step generates the residuals and the second step employs generated residuals to estimate a regression of first-differenced residuals on lagged residuals. Hence, any possible error from the first step will be carried into second...

Theories of ecosystems in economic or business research are rarely considered from a perspective, in which these network constructs of inter-organisational relationships are influenced by policy initiatives and instruments – not just individual efforts of actors from within the ecosystem. In...

Many experimental studies report that economics students tend to act more selfishly than students of other disciplines, a finding that received widespread public and professional attention. Two main explanations that the existing literature offers for the differences found in the behavior...