In this paper, we extend Bai and Perron's (1998, Econometrica, pp. 47-78) method for detecting multiple breaks to nonlinear models. To that end, we consider a nonlinear model that can be estimated via nonlinear least squares (NLS) and features a limited number of parameter shifts occurring at...

This draft is a summary of the paper entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate. In that paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of oil prices and of three additional oil-related products: gasoline, propane and heating oil. The...

This paper investigated the impact of Foreign Direct Investment on some selected macro-economic variables such as real GDP, gross fixed capital formation and unemployment. Data for the variables were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Statistical Bulletin. For the assessment of this...

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

In this paper, we extend Bai and Perron’s (1998, Econometrica, p.47-78) framework for multiple break testing to linear models estimated via Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS). Within our framework, the break points are estimated simultaneously with the regression parameters via minimization of the...

In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...

We show that the two-stage minimum description length (MDL) criterion widely used to estimate linear change-point (CP) models corresponds to the marginal likelihood of a Bayesian model with a specific class of prior distributions. This allows results from the frequentist and Bayesian paradigms...

Engle-Granger methodology follows two-step estimations. The first step generates the residuals and the second step employs generated residuals to estimate a regression of first-differenced residuals on lagged residuals. Hence, any possible error from the first step will be carried into second...

A Bartlett-type formula is proposed for the asymptotic distribution of the sample autocorrelations of nonlinear processes. The asymptotic covariances between sample autocorrelations are expressed as the sum of two terms. The first term corresponds to the standard Bartlett's formula for linear...

The economic literature examining changes in divorce rates is not conclusive since legal reforms have been found to have permanent, transitory or no effect on divorce rates. This paper studies differences in divorce rates among 16 European countries from 1930 to 2006, by exploiting time-series...