In this paper we propose a relatively simple procedure to predict Euro-zone industrial production using mostly data derived from the business surveys of the three major economies within the European Monetary Union (France, Germany, and Italy). The basic idea is that of estimating business...

After deriving a model describing the law of evolution of innovators and imitators the article focuses on their relationships under two different scenarios: prey-predator, in which innovators are regarded as preys, and competing species. Analytic results show that among the feasible equilibria...

After deriving a model describing the law of evolution of innovators and imitators the article focuses on their relationships under two different scenarios: prey-predator, in which innovators are regarded as preys, and competing species. Analytic results show that among the feasible equilibria...

Abstract Social capital has been credited with playing a role in many desirable economic outcomes. We analyze how these potentially beneficial effects translate into the macro-performance of economies by developing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model featuring the role of...

Markov chain theory is proving to be a powerful approach to bootstrap highly nonlinear time series. In this work we provide a method to estimate the memory of a Markov chain (i.e. its order) and to identify its relevant states. In particular the choice of memory lags and the aggregation of...

Markov chain theory is proving to be a powerful approach to bootstrap highly nonlinear time series. In this work we provide a method to estimate the memory of a Markov chain (i.e. its order) and to identify its relevant states. In particular the choice of memory lags and the aggregation of...

Standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are populated by fully-informed-optimising Muth-rational agents. This kind of agent is at odds with well-known psychological biases, not to mention real life people. In particular, there are strong theoretical and empirical reasons to...

We model the way the interplay between tax surveillance institutions and civic capital shapes taxpayers' support for welfare state. We show that, when tax surveillance is tight, rational civic-minded individuals express greater support for welfare spending than uncivic ones. We provide empirical...