We examine the accuracy of survey-based expectations of the Chilean exchange rate relative to the US dollar. Our out-of-sample analysis reveals that survey-based forecasts outperform the Driftless Random Walk (DRW) in terms of Mean Squared Prediction Error at several forecasting horizons. This...

To justify the business cycle synchronization (BCS) process among ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand), Japan and the United States, the Autoregressive Distributed Log bounds test and the UECM (Unrestricted Error Correction Model) representation advanced in Pesaran...

To justify the business cycle synchronization (BCS) process among ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand), Japan and the United States, the Autoregressive Distributed Log bounds test and the UECM (Unrestricted Error Correction Model) representation advanced in Pesaran...

The article proposes a new approach for estimation of the business cycle component of the Russian GDP. At the first step, the non-stationary component consisting of a deterministic trend with structural breaks, and components characterizing the long-run impact of oil prices on the Russian...

Developing the National Strategy for Sustainable Development (SNDD) is the result of the obligation assumed by Romania, as a member of the European Union, in accordance with the objectives agreed at EU and methodological prescriptions of the European Commission. Defining element of this policy...

This is the first paper in the literature to match key business cycle moments and long-run equity returns in a small open economy with production. These results are achieved by introducing three modications to a standard real business cycle model: (1) borrowing and lending costs are imposed to...

This paper focuses on the impact of full capital account liberalization on macroeconomic volatility in Greece. According to the standard neoclassical model, such liberalization is to be desired because, among other advantages, it may reduce macroeconomic volatility. The link between...

In this paper we attempt to reproduce both the business cycle facts and the equity premium of the Israeli economy—an economy which is "typical" in the sense that investment is much more volatile than output (and consumption). We show that GHH preferences, which are quite common in RBC models...

We empirically show that after an increase in global financial risk, the response of unemployment is markedly more subdued in emerging economies (EMEs) relative to small open advanced economies (SOAEs), while the differential response of GDP and investment across the two country groups is...

We document a negative and significant relationship between domestic financial de- velopment and unemployment volatility in developing and emerging economies (DEMEs). However, there is no significant relationship between these variables in advanced economies (AEs). A labor-search model with...