This paper describes the dependence of market-based statistical moments of returns on statistical moments and correlations of the current and past trade values. We use Markowitz’s definition of value weighted return of a portfolio as the definition of market-based average return of trades...

We examine the accuracy of survey-based expectations of the Chilean exchange rate relative to the US dollar. Our out-of-sample analysis reveals that survey-based forecasts outperform the Driftless Random Walk (DRW) in terms of Mean Squared Prediction Error at several forecasting horizons. This...

We show how time-series of random market trade values and volumes completely describe stochasticity of stock returns. We derive equation that links up returns with current and past trade values and show how statistical moments of the trade values and volumes determine statistical moments of...

This paper introduces a new economic, market-based probability of stock return that takes into account the impact of the size of the market’s trade values and volumes. We define how the statistical moments of trade values and volumes determine the statistical moments of stock returns. To...

This paper describes the probability of stock returns through a description of the set of their market-based n-th statistical moments that depended on the n-th statistical moments of market trade values and volumes. We derive these relations as extensions of Markowitz’s definition of a value...

Markets possess all available information on stock returns. The randomness of market trade determines the statistics of stock returns. This paper describes the dependence of the first four market-based statistical moments of stock returns on statistical moments and correlations of current and...

This study of the co-movements of the transaction prices and trading volumes reveal that the mean correlation of prices, and trading volumes alike, among different housing sub-markets increases during the market boom. After a financial crisis, the correlations drop dramatically and stay low. The...

Very often the crisis induces changes in the linkages between the financial variables. This paper explores, through a Vector Autoregression model and Granger Causality tests, the impact of the global crisis on the relation between the Romanian stock prices and the interest rates. We found this...

Fashions are hard to resist, and it is now fashionable in much of the North to rely on a fiscal engine of growth. As for emerging markets, however, boosting spending at a time in which revenues are contracting or, in many cases, collapsing for an uncertain period of time is an more complicated...

Following the US financial crisis of 2006-2007, the global economy suffered from negative spillover effects of it since fall 2008. In this study, the effects of global financial crsis on Turkish economy (2008-2010) and the macroeconomic performance of the Turkish government (before and) during...