This draft is a summary of the paper entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate. In that paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of oil prices and of three additional oil-related products: gasoline, propane and heating oil. The...

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

The present macroeconomic model aims to provide a theory-consistent representation of the general structure of the Viet Nam economy and, as such, it offers real and financial sector forecasting and policy simulation capabilities targeted to the needs of the State Bank of Viet Nam. The model...

This is a summary of the paper entitled : “The Mean Squared Prediction Error Paradox”. In that paper, we show that traditional comparisons of Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE) between two competing forecasts may be highly controversial. This is so because when some specific conditions of...

The study compares the explanatory power of two alternative long-term determinants of the real effective exchange rate of the Russian ruble, oil prices and oil export revenues, in three variants of the error correction model. The linear model shows that during the period of managed nominal...

With the inflation-growth nexus being a hotly debated issue within the academic paradigm, the purpose of our study is to examine the relationship for Swaziland between 1975 and 2016 of which there currently exists very limited country-specific evidence. In the design of our study we...

In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...

This paper considers the forecast accuracies of VAR and ARIMA models. The paper, hence, employs monthly Turkish CPI, Exchange Rate and Interest rate variables for the period 1994:1-200:07, and, observes the ex-post forecast values of the relevant variables. To this end, paper first determines...

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

The objective of this paper is to determine the relative importance of aggregate demand and aggregate supply shocks to fluctuations of real growth in CEMAC. The factual analysis of growth in the subregion over the last 20 years shows a dependence on oil prices whose e!ects on growth are...