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autoregressive model for the inflation rate. By construction, our approach avoids a number of problems related to the GMM estimation … of the NKPC. We estimate the hybrid NKPC with quarterly U.S. data (1955:1-2010:3), and both expected future inflation and … lagged inflation are found important in determining the inflation rate, with the former clearly dominating. Moreover …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015226276
This draft is a summary of the paper entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate. In that paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of oil prices and of three additional oil-related products: gasoline, propane and heating oil. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015229382
I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015230637
I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015233042
using the autoregressive distributive (ARDL) model applied to quarterly data covering the post inflation targeting period of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015256695
other hand, other control variables such as per capita GDP, inflation and divorce appear to be more significantly related …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015257131
With the inflation-growth nexus being a hotly debated issue within the academic paradigm, the purpose of our study is … a credit technology which causes a nonlinear relationship between inflation and growth. Econometrically, we rely on the … smooth transition regression (STR) which allows us to estimate an optimal inflation rate characterized by smooth transition …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015261115
The estimation of inflation volatility is important to central banks as it guides their policy initiatives for … Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) family with a view to providing a parsimonious approximation to the dynamics of Nigeria’s inflation volatility … and food CPI, implying that the impacts of inflation shocks on their volatilities die away very slowly. However, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015265193
In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015265738
), calibrated with Chilean data of total inflation, core inflation, Imacec, and monthly return of the nominal exchange rate Chilean … and core inflation. Considering the three IC, it is more likely to obtain an overfitted model by just one coefficient …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015243394