This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

We study the economics and finance scholars’ reaction to the 2008 financial crisis using machine learning language analyses methods of Latent Dirichlet Allocation and dynamic topic modelling algorithms, to analyze the texts of 14,270 NBER working papers covering the 1999–2016 period. We find...

The main thesis in this manuscript is that a social choice theory based on aggregating individual preferences and values is insufficient to confront the social choices that today’s world is facing. It is defended in here that institutions play a critical role in any social choice, and that the...

This paper highlights the findings of some of the recent research on capital flows, credit booms, and their attendant consequences for asset prices, business cycles, financial crises and the interaction among these. The aim is to condense key results from the relevant literature and promote...

Liberalized capital accounts and financial integration can enrich a country’s welfare as long as they are appropriately coordinated with the adequate strengthening of policy frameworks. Otherwise, volatile capital flows and financial contagion, promulgated by capital account liberalization and...

The paper introduces foreign exchange interventions (FXIs) into a standard New-Keynesian small open economy model. It solves for the optimal FXI policy, suggests an implementable policy rule, and studies the transmission mechanism of FXIs. Relying on the portfolio balance channel, deviations...

The paper introduces foreign exchange interventions (FXIs) into a standard New-Keynesian small open economy model. It solves for the optimal FXI policy, suggests an implementable policy rule, and studies the transmission mechanism of FXIs. Relying on the portfolio balance channel, deviations...

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between international financial integration and macroeconomic volatility. Looking at a panel of 90 countries over the period 1960-2000, we find that domestic financial conditions matter when assessing the impact of financial integration on consumption...

I develop a measure of changing tail risk perceptions based on global financial shocks reflecting 'flights-to-safety'. Large flight-to-safety shocks are defined as joint tail realizations of returns across major risky and safe asset classes. Flight-to-safety shocks are substantially distinct...

I develop a measure of global financial shocks based on observed 'flights-to-safety', where large shocks are defined as joint tail realizations of returns across major risky and safe assets. Flights-to-safety map to unexpected tail events, inform future changes in world prices and interest...