In this paper, we propose a simulation-based method for computing point and density forecasts for univariate noncausal and non-Gaussian autoregressive processes. Numerical methods are needed to forecast such time series because the prediction problem is generally nonlinear and no analytic...

In a small-scale New-Keynesian model with a hybrid Phillips curve and IS equation, the paper is concerned with an arbitrary frequency of the agents' synchronized decision making. It investigates the validity of a fundamental methodological precept according to which no substantive prediction or...

This paper shows how to solve dynamic agency models by extending recursive Lagrangean techniques a la Marcet and Marimon (2009) to problems with hidden actions. The method has many advantages with respect to promised utilities approach (Abreu, Pearce and Stacchetti (1990)): it is a significant...

Psychological states side by side with the bounded rational expectations among social agents contributes to the pattern of consumptions in economic system. One of the psychological states are the envy – a tendency to emulate any gaps with other agents’ properties. The evolutionary game...

The aim of this paper is to simulate profit expectations as an emergent property using an agent based model. The paper builds upon adaptive expectations, interactive expectations and small world networks, combining them into a single adaptive interactive profit expectations model (AIE)....

Recent financial crises and especially large corporate bankruptcies, have led bank managements and financial authorities to follow and monitor both financial and real sector risks, and to focus on firm failures. Bank of International Settlements, has therefore, taken the decision to include the...

This paper extends the concept of interaction platforms and explores the evolution of interaction and cooperation supported by individuals’ changing trust and trustworthiness on directed weighted regular ring network from the angle of micro scope by using agent-based modeling. This agent-based...

This paper explores the evolution of interaction and cooperation supported by individuals’ changing trust and trustworthiness on directed weighted regular ring though agent-based modeling. This agent-based model integrates fragility of trust, interaction decision, strategy decision, payoff...

Discussion of "The Pricing Behavior of Firms in the Euro Area: New Survey Evidence" by S. Fabiani, M. Druant, I. Hernando, C. Kwapil, B. Landau, C. Loupias, F. Martins, T. Mathä, R. Sabbatini, H. Stahl, and A. Stockman (2004); Presented at the Inflation Persistence Network (IPN) Conference on...

The concept of inflation perceived by consumers came in the recent debate on inflation since it may affect consumer behaviour even if the perception was completely wrong. A misperception of inflation occurs particularly when households tend to label incorrectly inflation what really is a...