Derivamos las condiciones para la elección óptima de cartera bajo una utilidad con aversión al riesgo relativo constante y distribuciones de probabilidad alternativas que son capaces de capturar las caraterísticas de asimetría y curtosis de los rendimientos de los activos financieros....

Die Dissertation wendet die fallgestützte Entscheidungstheorie (Case-Based Decision Theory) vorgeschlagen von Gilboa and Schmeidler (1995) auf Entscheidungen in Finanzmärkten an. Betrachtet werden sowohl das individuelle Portfoliowahlproblem eines Investors, wie auch Märkte, in denen...

This dissertation studies strategies to mitigate the risks associated with operational and strategic decisions of a firm, particularly focusing on project management, product development and procurement decisions. In the first essay we develop two simulation-based methods to evaluate risky...

We have analyzed the application of decision analysis and risk management tools to solve practical problems associated with Climate Change and Risk Detection in the financial services industry. Geoengineering, which is described as an intentional modification of earth’s environment to mitigate...

ABSTRACT The problem of project selection is of significant importance in management of information systems. Almost $2 trillion is spent worldwide every year on IT projects, with over $600 billion spent in the US alone. Traditionally, managers have being using the classical net present value...

This undergraduate class serves as an introduction to probability and statistics, with emphasis on engineering applications. The first segment discusses events and their probability, Bayes' Theorem, discrete and continuous random variables and vectors, univariate and multivariate distributions,...

This paper evaluates the Pugh Controlled Convergence method and its relationship to recent developments in design theory. Computer executable models are proposed simulating a team of people involved in iterated cycles of evaluation, ideation, and investigation. The models suggest that: 1)...

In important conflicts such as wars and labor-management disputes, people typically rely on the judgment of experts to predict the decisions that will be made. We compared the accuracy of 106 forecasts by experts and 169 forecasts by novices about eight real conflicts. The forecasts of experts...

Nutrients are the number one water pollution problem for U.S. lakes, reservoirs, and ponds. Excessive nutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, lead to eutrophication, a condition that can include low oxygen levels, noxious algal blooms, and fish kills. Since eutrophication is a condition that...

Probability forecasts play an important role in many decision and risk analysis applications. Research and practice over the years have shown that the shift towards distributional forecasts provides a more accurate and appropriate means of capturing risk in models for these applications. This...