We derive a simple semi-parametric estimator of the “direct” Average Derivative, δ=E(D[m(x)]), where m(x) is the regression function and S, the support of the density of x is compact. We partition S into disjoint bins and the local slope D[m(x)] within these bins is estimated by using...

In this paper, we review the concept of risk, its evolution in history and the big changes we experienced in the last 50 years. We conclude that peak risks are growing and the need for risk management is becoming a societal demand. Two phenomena are identified to render risks more complex,...