Monotonic estimation for the survival probability of a loan in a risk-rated portfolio is based on the observation arising, for example, from loan pricing that a loan with a lower credit risk rating is more likely to survive than a loan with a higher credit risk rating, given the same additional...

Minimum cross-entropy estimation is an extension to the maximum likelihood estimation for multinomial probabilities. Given a probability distribution {r_i }_(i=1)^k, we show in this paper that the monotonic estimates {p_i }_(i=1)^k for the probability distribution by minimum cross-entropy are...

The thesis of this paper is mathematical formulation of the laws of Economics with application of the principle of Least Action of classical mechanics. This paper is proposed as the rigorous mathematical approach to Economics provided by the fundamental principle of the physical science – the...

Changes in market conditions present challenges for investors as they cause performance to deviate from the ranges predicted by long-term averages of means and covariances. The aim of conditional asset allocation strategies is to overcome this issue by adjusting portfolio allocations to hedge...

Changes in market conditions present challenges for investors as they cause performance to deviate from the ranges predicted by long-term averages of means and covariances. The aim of conditional asset allocation strategies is to overcome this issue by adjusting portfolio allocations to hedge...

This paper assesses the degree of financial integration between three African trading blocs, namely, the Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC). The paper suggests a measure of financial...

This paper examines the suitability of Google Trends data for the modeling and forecasting of interregional migration in Russia. Monthly migration data, search volume data, and macro variables are used with a set of univariate and multivariate models to study the migration data of the two...

This paper aims to assess whether Google search data is useful when predicting the US unemployment rate among other more traditional predictor variables. A weekly Google index is derived from the keyword “unemployment” and is used in diffusion index variants along with the weekly number of...