This paper deals with the implications of factor demand linkages for monetary policy design. We consider a dynamic general equilibrium model with two sectors that produce durable and non-durable goods, respectively. Part of the output of each sector serves as a production input in both sectors,...

This paper argues that factor demand linkages are crucial in the transmission of both sectoral and aggregate shocks. We show this using a panel of highly disaggregated manufacturing sectors together with sectoral structural VARs. When sectoral interactions are explicitly accounted for, a...

This paper argues that factor demand linkages can be important for the transmission of both sectoral and aggregate shocks. We show this using a panel of highly disaggregated manufacturing sectors together with sectoral structural VARs. When sectoral interactions are explicitly accounted for, a...

We evaluate US Energy Information Agencies (EIA) forecasts of the world petroleum market, emphasising the importance of taking a multivariate perspective, considering asymmetric loss and allowing for time-variation. Forecasts for total demand, total supply, total stock withdrawals and the oil...

We evaluate US Energy Information Agencies (EIA) forecasts of the world petroleum market, emphasising the importance of taking a multivariate perspective, considering asymmetric loss and allowing for time-variation. Forecasts for total demand, total supply, total stock withdrawals and the oil...

This paper introduces an adaptive algorithm for time-varying autoregressive models in the presence of heavy tails. The evolution of the parameters is determined by the score of the conditional distribution, the resulting model is observation-driven and is estimated by classical methods. In...