In this paper, we study partial identification of the distribution of treatment effects of a binary treatment for ideal randomized experiments, ideal randomized experiments with a known value of a dependence measure, and for data satisfying the selection-on-observables assumption respectively....

In this paper, we first re-visit the inference problem for interval identified parameters originally studied in Imbens and Manski (2004) and later extended in Stoye (2008). We take the general criterion function approach and establish a new confidence interval that is asymptotically valid under...

In this paper, we aim at forecasting the stochastic volatility of key financial market variables with the Kalman filter using stochastic models developed by Taylor (1986,1994) and Nelson (1990). First, we compare a stochastic volatility model relying on the Kalman filter to the conditional...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency...

We focus on estimation and inference of the ratio of trend slopes between two time series where the trending behavior of each series can be well approximated by a simple linear time trend. Our methodological results are motivated by a recent empirical climate literature that seeks to estimate...

A unified quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimation theory for stationary and nonstationary simple Markov bilinear (SMBL) models is proposed. Such models may be seen as generalized random coefficient autoregressions (GRCA) in which the innovation and the random coefficient processes are fully...

The paper categorizes factors responsible for forecasting the outcome of U.S. presidential election 2016 using factor analysis, which groups the various economic and non-economic parameters based on the correlation among them. The major economic factor significant in 2016 US presidential...

Given the growing international competition and globalization being characterized by the massive reduction of institutional barriers, opening new markets for consumer goods, the birth of many trade agreements and the establishment of the World Trade Organization, it is imperative for companies...

By using a sample of 77 countries our analysis applies several nonparametric techniques in order to reveal the link between national culture and corruption. Based on Hofstede’s cultural dimensions and the corruption perception index, the results reveal that countries with higher levels of...