We propose a stochastic spanning approach to assess whether a traditional portfolio of stocks and bonds spans augmented portfolios including commodities, foreign exchange, and real estate. We empirically show that in all seven portfolio combinations, the augmented portfolio is not spanned by the...

This is a summary of the paper entitled : “The Mean Squared Prediction Error Paradox”. In that paper, we show that traditional comparisons of Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE) between two competing forecasts may be highly controversial. This is so because when some specific conditions of...

We propose a stochastic spanning approach to assess whether a traditional portfolio of stocks and bonds spans augmented portfolios including commodities, foreign exchange, and real estate. We empirically show that in all seven portfolio combinations, the augmented portfolio is not spanned by the...

This draft is a summary of the paper entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate. In that paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of oil prices and of three additional oil-related products: gasoline, propane and heating oil. The...

This paper presents applications of our theory to description of particular economic problems. We give all definitions and equations in Part I and II of our work. Here we argue propagation of small perturbations of economic variables and transactions on economic space. We show that small...

In project appraisal under uncertainty, the economic reliability of a measure of financial efficiency depends on its strong NPV-consistency, meaning that the performance metric (i) supplies the same recommendation in accept-reject decisions as the NPV, (ii) ranks competing projects in the same...

This research represents some thoughts on the accurate characterization of the stock market indexes trends in the conditions of the nonlinear capital flows at the stock exchanges in the global capital markets. We make our original research proposal that the nonlinear capital flows in the process...

This research represents some thoughts on the accurate characterization of the stock market indexes trends in the conditions of the nonlinear capital flows at the stock exchanges in the global capital markets. We make our original research proposal that the nonlinear capital flows in the process...

In this paper, we show that traditional comparisons of Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE) between two competing forecasts may be highly controversial. This is so because when some specific conditions of efficiency are not met, the forecast displaying the lowest MSPE will also display the...

In this paper we show that the MSCI ACWI Metals and Mining Index has the ability to predict base metal prices. We use both in-sample and out-of-sample exercises to conduct such examination. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the present-value model for stock-price...