This draft is a summary of the paper entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate. In that paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of oil prices and of three additional oil-related products: gasoline, propane and heating oil. The...

We test the validity of the Dutch disease hypothesis by examining the relationship between real oil prices and real exchange rates in a sample of fourteen oil exporting countries. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds tests of cointegration support the existence of a stable relationship...

We test the validity of the Dutch disease hypothesis by examining the relationship between real oil prices and real exchange rates in a sample of fourteen oil exporting countries. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds tests of cointegration support the existence of a stable relationship...

This paper examines the behavior of several implied volatility indexes in order to compare them with the volatility forecasts obtained from estimating a GARCH model. Though volatility has always been a prevailing subject of research it has become particularly relevant given the increasingly...

In this paper we show that survey-based-expectations about the future evolution of the Chilean exchange rate have the ability to predict the returns of the six primary non-ferrous metals: aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. Predictability is also found for returns of the London Metal...

This paper investigates the nature of shocks across international equity markets and evaluates the shifts in their comovements at a business-cycle frequency. Using an “identification through heteroskedasticity” methodology, we compute the impact coefficients on the common and...

This paper highlights the hidden dependence of the basic pricing equation of a multi-period consumption-based asset pricing model on price and payoff autocorrelations. We obtain the approximations of the basic pricing equation that describe the mean price “to-day,” mean payoff...

This is a summary of the paper entitled : “The Mean Squared Prediction Error Paradox”. In that paper, we show that traditional comparisons of Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE) between two competing forecasts may be highly controversial. This is so because when some specific conditions of...

The chaos theory assumes that the returns dynamics are not normally distributed and more complex approaches have to be used to study these time series. In fact, the Fractal Market Hypothesis assumes that the returns dynamics are not independent of the investors’ attitudes and represent the...

We examine the accuracy of survey-based expectations of the Chilean exchange rate relative to the US dollar. Our out-of-sample analysis reveals that survey-based forecasts outperform the Driftless Random Walk (DRW) in terms of Mean Squared Prediction Error at several forecasting horizons. This...