The "traditional structural approach" to the determination of real commodity prices has relied exclusively on demand factors as the fundamentals that explain the behavior of commodity prices. This framework, however, has been unable to explain the marked and sustained weakness in commodity...

The "traditional structural approach" to determining real commodity prices has relied exclusively on demand factors as the fundamentals that explain commodity prices. This framework, however, has been unable to explain the sustained weakness in commodity prices in the 1980s and 1990s. This paper...

In this paper we present evidence that capital account reversals have become more severe foremerging markets. Because policy options are limited in the midst of a capital market crisisand because so many countries have already had crises recently, we focus on some of thepolicies that could...

In recent years, many countries have suffered severe financial crises, producing a staggering tollon their economies, particularly in emerging markets. One view blames fixed exchange rates--“soft pegs”--for these meltdowns. Adherents to that view advise countries to allow theircurrency to...

Organizado por: Banco de España

Why are investors rushing to purchase US government securities when the US is the epicentre of the financial crisis? This column attributes the paradox to key emerging market economies’ exchange practices, which require reserves most often invested in US government securities. America’s...

Financial crises are historically associated with the “4 deadly D’s”: Sharp economic downturns follow banking crises; with government revenues dragged down, fiscal deficits worsen; deficits lead to debt; as debt piles up rating downgrades follow. For the most fortunate countries, the...

This paper represents a neoclassical model that explains the observed empirical relationship between government spending and world commodity supplies and the real exchange rate and real commodity prices. It is shown that fiscal expansion and increasing world commodity supplies simultaneously...

These are the narrative individual country histories of exchange rate arrangements, 1946-2001 that underpin "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation". The chronologies allow us to date dual or multiple exchange rate episodes, as well as to differentiate between...

This is the chartbook of individual country exchange rate histories and their experience with parallel markets, 1946-2001 that accompanies "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation." We develop a novel system of reclassifying historical exchange rate regimes. One key...