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Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a widely applied nonparametric method for comparative evaluation of firms’ efficiency. A deficiency of DEA is that the efficiency scores assigned to each firm are sensitive to sampling variations, particularly when small samples are used. In addition, an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015232348
This paper presents a method to characterize the typical path of a stochastic process, which I refer to as the Median Path. The paper describes how to estimate the Median Path in simulation and compares it to a different estimate of the typical path that is defined as the median value at each...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015252666
The purpose of the System Dynamics method is to study the relationship between structure and behavior in non-linear, dynamic systems. In such systems, the significance of various structural components to the behavior pattern exhibited, changes as the behavior unfolds. Changes in structural...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015227450
This article is devoted to study the e¤ects of the S-periodical fractional di¤erencing filter (1-L^S)^Dt . To put this e¤ect in evidence, we have derived the periodic auto-covariance functions of two distinct univariate seasonally fractionally di¤erenced periodic models. A multivariate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015259477
Classical univariate and multivariate time series models have problems to deal with the high variability of hourly electricity spot prices. We propose to model alternatively the daily mean electricity supply functions using a dynamic factor model. And to derive, subsequently, the hourly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015224315
We examine the accuracy of survey-based expectations of the Chilean exchange rate relative to the US dollar. Our out-of-sample analysis reveals that survey-based forecasts outperform the Driftless Random Walk (DRW) in terms of Mean Squared Prediction Error at several forecasting horizons. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015262273
We propose a theoretical approach to bandwidth choice for continuous-time Markov processes. We do so in the context of stationary and nonstationary processes of the recurrent kind. The procedure consists of two steps. In the first step, by invoking local Gaussianity, we suggest an automated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015235275
Forecasting the vote share for the upcoming US presidential elections involves multiple pivotal economic and non-economic factors. Critical macroeconomic forces such as the rate of economic growth, tax burden, inflation, and unemployment significantly influence the votes gained or lost by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015214258
Non-Gaussian state-space models arise in several applications, and within this framework the binary time series setting provides a relevant example. However, unlike for Gaussian state-space models — where filtering, predictive and smoothing distributions are available in closed form — binary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015214276
The outcome of the US presidential election is one of the most significant events that impacts trade, investment, and geopolitical policies on the global stage. It also sets the direction of the world economy and global politics for the next few years. Hence, it is of prime importance not just...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015214351