In this paper, we show that traditional comparisons of Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE) between two competing forecasts may be highly controversial. This is so because when some specific conditions of efficiency are not met, the forecast displaying the lowest MSPE will also display the...

We examine the accuracy of survey-based expectations of the Chilean exchange rate relative to the US dollar. Our out-of-sample analysis reveals that survey-based forecasts outperform the Driftless Random Walk (DRW) in terms of Mean Squared Prediction Error at several forecasting horizons. This...

The present paper reviews the causes that led to the financial crisis. Unlike other interpretations, this paper does not place main significance on a single source or on a set of causes. I consider all major standpoints highlighted by research and media prior, during and after the financial...

The present paper reviews the causes that led to the financial crisis. Unlike other interpretations, this paper does not place main significance on a single source or on a set of causes. I consider all major standpoints highlighted by research and media prior, during and after the financial...

Indeed, the specification of equilibrium in the world economy depends on the exchange rate regime and thus, the early contributions to the postwar literature on exchange rate economics are to a large extent concerened with the role of speculation in foreign exchange markets. However, the world...

This draft is a summary of the paper entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate. In that paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of oil prices and of three additional oil-related products: gasoline, propane and heating oil. The...

One of the fascinating aspects of the European debt crisis has been the resilience of the euro. For much of 2011, the euro was a key reserve currency, oblivious to the chaos ravaging European economies. Now, however, the gravity of the crisis is finally dragging down the euro. As the Euro zone...

The concept of formation of the equilibrium exchange rate on the conversion market was developed, taking into account foreign trade, capital flows and other components of the balance of payments. As the main determinants of theoretical-structural model of the dynamics of the exchange rate equal...

The model of the equilibrium exchange rate of ruble is under construction on the basis of streams of the balance of payments of Russia taking into account trade conditions. Export-import transactions, factors of movement of the capital, a trade condition, indexes of the internal and export...

This paper examines how the transparency in monetary policy decision can impact the likelihood of currency crisis in a simple open economy model with public debt. In the presence of opacity, it is found that if the debt is high, the government will devaluate and vice versa, and the...